Scenarios and the lifeline

Every world has two views that look past today. The lifeline keeps score: what Manwe expected for that world, and how it turned out. The scenario simulator asks what follows from a change, or how you could reach a goal, without touching anything real.

Both live in Worlds. Pick a world, then choose Lifeline or Scenario from the tabs under its name. If you haven't set up a world yet, start with Worlds.

The lifeline

The lifeline is a timeline of one world: what Manwe knows about it now, what's still undecided, and what it expects to happen next. It fills in as you approve memory and as deep reviews run with that world selected. It has up to four sections:

NowMemory and links you've approved for this world. This is what Manwe can use when the world is selected.

OpenDrafts you've kept for later. They sit here as open threads and stay out of what Manwe reads until you promote them.

WatchpointsPredictions from reviews in this world, each with the panel's confidence. When a prediction names a date, the watchpoint has one too.

Future branchesPaths a review projected, a few months out, with the steps along the way. Branches whose dates have passed fold away under Past projections.

Predictions and branches are projections, not facts. Manwe keeps them apart from memory so a guess about next quarter never gets treated as something that happened. Click any entry to open the memory card or the review it came from.

Marking how a watchpoint turned out

A watchpoint with a date shows as upcoming until that day comes. Then it's marked Due for review, moves to the top, and gets three buttons: Happened, Partial, and Didn't happen.

Pressing one records the outcome as a draft in the world's Review tab, and the watchpoint shows as resolved. The outcome doesn't become memory on its own. You look at it, and promote it if it belongs in the world. See Memory.

Why bother? A prediction you never check teaches nothing. Marking what happened turns a forecast into a fact about your world, and gives the next review something real to stand on.

The scenario simulator

The Scenario tab has two parts. At the top, Simulate runs the simulator. Below it, a map of the world shows its approved memory and the links between memories. Drag to move around; Fit, zoom and Full screen sit in the map's toolbar.

Choose what you want to know:

What happensFollows the consequences of your situation, or of a change you describe, and shows the futures it could lead to. The question is optional: "What if I leave my job in spring?"

Find a pathStarts from a goal and works out different routes to it. Write the goal, and optionally a deadline and what you must keep: "A product role at a company I admire, within a year, without moving city."

Press Simulate or Find paths. The simulator uses the model selected in the composer. It may first ask a few questions about what would change the outcome most. Answer the ones you can, or press Use the suggestions. You can Stop a run at any time.

What-ifs

To test a change, add it on top of the world before you simulate. Nothing you add here touches the world itself.

AddPress Add what-if and choose Assume, Add an action, Change an action, or Change something. "Income drops by half." "Stop taking new client work."

IgnoreClick a memory card on the map and choose Ignore in scenario to see the world without it.

ForceClick a projected path and set it to Happened, Partial, or Did not happen.

CheckScenario Payload lists exactly what the simulator will use: the memory included, what you ignored, and your what-ifs.

What-ifs stay until you press Clear what-ifs or quit Manwe. Each world keeps its own.

Reading a result

A What happens result opens with a short summary, then:

FuturesThe ways this could go, lettered A, B, C, each marked Unlikely, Possible, Likely or Near certain. Each one says whether it serves or works against your goals, and which early signs would tell you it's happening.

What you can changeThe levers in your hands, and which futures each one moves.

ConsequencesA map from immediate to long term. Click a card to see what caused it, the memory or sources behind it, and how confident the simulator is.

Where it splitsThe moments where the futures diverge. A lightning mark means you can influence that one.

What the check foundA second pass looks for what the first missed, overstated or couldn't support, and says what it corrected.

A Find a path result compares routes to your goal. Each route has its steps, how often its simulated futures reach the goal, its weakest step, what to test early, and what it costs. The strongest is marked Best chance, followed by the case against it.

To see what a change does, press Simulate again and compare. What moved lists futures that appeared or disappeared and likelihoods that shifted.

Possibilities, not predictions. Likelihoods come from the points where futures split, and long chains of consequences are less certain. Use a result to think, not as a forecast.

An example

Say your world is a small bakery. Its memory says the lease renews in March and the goal is a second location by autumn. You add the what-if "A chain bakery opens two doors down in January" and press Simulate. The futures show where the weekend trade goes, the levers show what you could do before January, and the splits show the week that decides it. Then switch to Find a path with the goal "a second location by autumn" to compare routes there under the new conditions.

Nothing real changes

A simulation reads the world's approved memory and goals. It never edits the world, your profile, your memory, or the links between them, and it doesn't add anything to the lifeline. Suggestions and drafts never go in.

When base rates help, the simulator may want to search the web. It shows you the exact queries first and only sends them once you allow it, so you can check them for private details.

Finished simulations are kept under Saved simulations on the Scenario tab, where you can reopen or delete them. Deleting a world deletes its simulations too.

Scenario or lifeline? Use the lifeline to keep score on what Manwe expected. Use the simulator to rehearse something that hasn't happened, or to find a way to something you want, so you're not deciding for the first time when it matters.